Kortrijk 2–1 Lokeren: Result & Stats

Kortrijk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Lokeren

T. Chevalier 34', 18'

T. De Sutter 41'

1/28/2017

Jupiler Pro League · Round 24Guldensporenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kortrijk41%

×Draw25%

Lokeren34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KortrijkExpected goals in this matchLokeren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.32

Kortrijk

1.48

Lokeren

1.32

Kortrijk creates 12% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 30 away

1.28

creates per match

1.03

1.61

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Kortrijk

1.28

Lokeren

1.03

allows per match

Kortrijk

1.61

Lokeren

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kortrijk+0.00on par

Lokeren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

Lokeren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw

66%

Kortrijk or Lokeren

75%

Draw or Lokeren

59%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+

20%

Lokeren wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals

77%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

43%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

19%

Lokeren 1+ goals

73%

Lokeren 2+ goals

38%

Lokeren 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

55%

Lokeren (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.61 · 119 matches

Lokeren away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 1.28 + Lokeren defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lokeren attack 1.03 + Kortrijk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kortrijk scores more

41%

level

25%

Lokeren scores more

34%

Kortrijk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kortrijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

T. Chevalier↳ I. Ouali

34'

T. Chevalier↳ I. Saadi

41'

T. De Sutter↳ M. Tičinović

43'

Dimitris Goutas

46'

G. Martin← T. De Sutter

55'

S. De Ridder← S. Bolbat

66'

E. Ansah← B. Straetman

77'

S. Sarr← T. Chevalier

78'

X. Mercier← H. Van der Bruggen

82'

Eugene Ansah

88'

N. Pavlović← H. Kage

Statistics

KortrijkLokeren

Overview

1Corners7

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0