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Lokeren vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Lokeren
Lokeren
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
Ari Freyr Skúlason 39'
Jose Francisco Cevallos 35'
Amine Benchaib 27'
Serge Gakpé 69'
3/17/2019Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 30Daknamstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Lokeren34%
×Draw26%
Cercle Brugge40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokeren
1.28
Cercle Brugge
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 141 away

creates per match

Lokeren
0.94
Cercle Brugge
1.18

allows per match

Lokeren
1.61
Cercle Brugge
1.62

finishing

Lokeren+0.00on par
Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokeren ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lokeren or draw
60%
Lokeren or Cercle Brugge
74%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
66%

Winning margin

Lokeren wins by 2+
15%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lokeren 1+ goals
72%
Lokeren 2+ goals
37%
Lokeren 3+ goals
14%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
75%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
41%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lokeren (draw refunded)
46%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokeren at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.62 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokeren attack 0.94 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.28

Cercle Brugge attack 1.18 + Lokeren defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lokeren scores more
34%
level
26%
Cercle Brugge scores more
40%

Cercle Brugge at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Benjamin Delacourt
15'
Serge Gakpé← Irvin Cardona
27'
Amine Benchaib
35'
Jose Francisco Cevallos
39'
Ari Freyr Skúlason
46'
Naomichi Ueda← Naomichi Ueda
61'
Johanna Ochieng Omolo← Isaac Kone
66'
Johanna Ochieng Omolo
69'
Serge Gakpé
73'
Mehdi Terki← Dylan Mbayo
88'
Tracy Mpati← Jose Francisco Cevallos

Shots

5Lokeren

Statistics

LokerenCercle
Overview
5Total Shots1
7Corners4
8Fouls13
Shots
5Total Shots1
4On Target1
1Off Target0
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls13
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Lokeren vs Cercle Brugge

Lokeren beat Cercle Brugge 3-1 in Jupiler Pro League on March 17, 2019.

Goals: Amine Benchaib (27'), Jose Francisco Cevallos (35'), Ari Freyr Skúlason (39'), Serge Gakpé (69').

The match was played at Daknamstadion in Lokeren.