Lokeren 0–0 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Lokeren

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cercle Brugge

12/6/2014

Jupiler Pro League · Round 18Daknamstadion (Lokeren)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lokeren34%

×Draw27%

Cercle Brugge39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokerenExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.29

Lokeren

1.19

Cercle Brugge

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 142 away

0.77

creates per match

1.17

1.42

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Lokeren

0.77

Cercle Brugge

1.17

allows per match

Lokeren

1.42

Cercle Brugge

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokeren+0.00on par

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokeren ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lokeren or draw

61%

Lokeren or Cercle Brugge

73%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

66%

Winning margin

Lokeren wins by 2+

14%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lokeren 1+ goals

70%

Lokeren 2+ goals

33%

Lokeren 3+ goals

12%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

72%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

37%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lokeren (draw refunded)

47%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokeren at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.61 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokeren attack 0.77 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cercle Brugge attack 1.17 + Lokeren defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokeren scores more

34%

level

27%

Cercle Brugge scores more

39%

Cercle Brugge at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Remacle← A. Patosi

46'

B. Abdurahimi← N. De Pauw

67'

M. Maertens← S. Bačelić-Grgić

73'

S. Buyl← K. DHaene

76'

C. Dessers← K. Persoons

76'

K. Van Roose← T. Van Acker

Lokeren

Cercle

1

4

3

15

24

38

10

▼

Bačelić-G

41

▼

Acker

19

Sukuta-Pa

30

▼

89

1

5

13

3

2

8

▼

Persoons

7

Overmeire

10

▼

Patosi

9

Leye

29

▼

Pauw

20

Vanaken

46'▲J. Remacle←▼A. Patosi

46'▲B. Abdurahimi←▼N. De Pauw

76'▲C. Dessers←▼K. Persoons

Lokeren substitutes

14Remacle18Abdurahimi17Dessers4Mertens11Kaya12Lazić28Ngolok

67'▲M. Maertens←▼S. Bačelić-Grgić

73'▲S. Buyl←▼K. DHaene

76'▲K. Van Roose←▼T. Van Acker

Cercle Brugge substitutes

33Maertens40Buyl28Roose7Smolders16Damme21Verkindere27Dewaele