Loja 1–2 Alhaurino: Result & Stats

Loja

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Alhaurino

5/2/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Loja49%

×Draw25%

Alhaurino26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LojaExpected goals in this matchAlhaurino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.11

Loja

1.60

Alhaurino

1.11

Loja creates 44% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 47 away

1.68

creates per match

1.11

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Loja

1.68

Alhaurino

1.11

allows per match

Loja

1.11

Alhaurino

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loja+0.00on par

Alhaurino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loja ↓

Alhaurino →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Loja or draw

74%

Loja or Alhaurino

75%

Draw or Alhaurino

51%

Winning margin

Loja wins by 2+

25%

Alhaurino wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Loja 1+ goals

80%

Loja 2+ goals

47%

Loja 3+ goals

22%

Alhaurino 1+ goals

67%

Alhaurino 2+ goals

30%

Alhaurino 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Loja (draw refunded)

65%

Alhaurino (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Loja at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Alhaurino away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Loja attack 1.68 + Alhaurino defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Alhaurino attack 1.11 + Loja defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Loja scores more

49%

level

25%

Alhaurino scores more

26%

Loja at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff