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Alhaurino vs Loja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Alhaurino
Alhaurino
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Loja
Loja
6/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 10Estadio Municipal Miguel Fijones

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Alhaurino52%
×Draw23%
Loja24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alhaurino
1.79
Loja
1.14

Alhaurino creates 57% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 29 away

creates per match

Alhaurino
1.34
Loja
0.97

allows per match

Alhaurino
1.30
Loja
2.24

finishing

Alhaurino+0.00on par
Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alhaurino ↓

Loja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Alhaurino or draw
76%
Alhaurino or Loja
77%
Draw or Loja
48%

Winning margin

Alhaurino wins by 2+
29%
Loja wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alhaurino 1+ goals
83%
Alhaurino 2+ goals
53%
Alhaurino 3+ goals
26%
Loja 1+ goals
68%
Loja 2+ goals
32%
Loja 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alhaurino (draw refunded)
68%
Loja (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alhaurino at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

Loja away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alhaurino attack 1.34 + Loja defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.79

Loja attack 0.97 + Alhaurino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alhaurino scores more
52%
level
23%
Loja scores more
24%

Alhaurino at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alhaurino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Alhaurino 1–1 Loja

Alhaurino and Loja drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguel Fijones in Alhaurín el Grande.