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Logan Lightning vs Lions — Queensland NPL 2026

Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Lions
Lions
A. Pengelly 89'
S. Carlos 66'
E. Docherty 17'
A. Fiechtner 9'
7/16/2022Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 11Cornubia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Logan Lightning18%
×Draw18%
Lions63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Logan Lightning
1.26
Lions
2.46

Lions creates 95% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 98 away

creates per match

Logan Lightning
1.29
Lions
2.47

allows per match

Logan Lightning
2.46
Lions
1.23

finishing

Logan Lightning+0.00on par
Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Logan Lightning ↓

Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Logan Lightning or draw
37%
Logan Lightning or Lions
82%
Draw or Lions
82%

Winning margin

Logan Lightning wins by 2+
7%
Lions wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Logan Lightning 1+ goals
72%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
36%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
13%
Lions 1+ goals
91%
Lions 2+ goals
70%
Lions 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
22%
Lions (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Logan Lightning at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.46 · 24 matches

Lions away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Logan Lightning attack 1.29 + Lions defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Lions attack 2.47 + Logan Lightning defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Logan Lightning scores more
18%
level
18%
Lions scores more
63%

Lions at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
A. Fiechtner
17'
E. Docherty
66'
S. Carlos
89'
A. Pengelly

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Logan Lightning 0–4 Lions

Lions beat Logan Lightning 4-0 in Queensland NPL on July 16, 2022.

Goals: A. Fiechtner (9'), E. Docherty (17'), S. Carlos (66'), A. Pengelly (89').

The match was played at Cornubia Park in Brisbane.