Lions 6–0 Logan Lightning: Result & Stats

Lions

FT

6 – 0

Logan Lightning

8/19/2017

League #191 · Round 22Lions FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lions72%

×Draw16%

Logan Lightning11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LionsExpected goals in this matchLogan Lightning

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

0.89

Lions

2.51

Logan Lightning

0.89

Lions creates 182% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

3.20

creates per match

1.18

0.60

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Lions

3.20

Logan Lightning

1.18

allows per match

Lions

0.60

Logan Lightning

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lions+0.00on par

Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lions ↓

Logan Lightning →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Lions or draw

89%

Lions or Logan Lightning

84%

Draw or Logan Lightning

28%

Winning margin

Lions wins by 2+

50%

Logan Lightning wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Lions 1+ goals

92%

Lions 2+ goals

71%

Lions 3+ goals

45%

Logan Lightning 1+ goals

59%

Logan Lightning 2+ goals

22%

Logan Lightning 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lions (draw refunded)

86%

Logan Lightning (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lions at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lions attack 3.20 + Logan Lightning defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.51

Logan Lightning attack 1.18 + Lions defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Lions scores more

72%

level

16%

Logan Lightning scores more

11%

Lions at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff