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Logan Lightning vs Eastern Suburbs — Queensland Premier League 2026

Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Eastern Suburbs
Eastern Suburbs
4/14/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 7Cornubia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Logan Lightning35%
×Draw21%
Eastern Suburbs43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Logan Lightning
1.79
Eastern Suburbs
2.00

Eastern Suburbs creates 12% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 11 away

creates per match

Logan Lightning
2.12
Eastern Suburbs
2.73

allows per match

Logan Lightning
1.28
Eastern Suburbs
1.45

finishing

Logan Lightning+0.00on par
Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Logan Lightning ↓

Eastern Suburbs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Logan Lightning or draw
57%
Logan Lightning or Eastern Suburbs
79%
Draw or Eastern Suburbs
65%

Winning margin

Logan Lightning wins by 2+
18%
Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Logan Lightning 1+ goals
83%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
53%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
26%
Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals
86%
Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals
59%
Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
45%
Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Logan Lightning at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.28 · 43 matches

Eastern Suburbs away — creates 2.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Logan Lightning attack 2.12 + Eastern Suburbs defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.79

Eastern Suburbs attack 2.73 + Logan Lightning defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Logan Lightning scores more
35%
level
21%
Eastern Suburbs scores more
43%

Eastern Suburbs at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Logan Lightning 2–0 Eastern Suburbs

Logan Lightning beat Eastern Suburbs 2-0 in Queensland Premier League on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Cornubia Park in Brisbane.