Eastern Suburbs 3–2 Logan Lightning: Result & Stats

Eastern Suburbs

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Logan Lightning

Unknown 79', 77', 26'

Unknown 73', 32'

7/12/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 18Heath Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Eastern Suburbs54%

×Draw19%

Logan Lightning27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eastern SuburbsExpected goals in this matchLogan Lightning

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.75

Eastern Suburbs

2.50

Logan Lightning

1.75

Eastern Suburbs creates 43% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 44 away

2.92

creates per match

1.84

1.67

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Eastern Suburbs

2.92

Logan Lightning

1.84

allows per match

Eastern Suburbs

1.67

Logan Lightning

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Suburbs ↓

Logan Lightning →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Eastern Suburbs or draw

73%

Eastern Suburbs or Logan Lightning

81%

Draw or Logan Lightning

46%

Winning margin

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+

34%

Logan Lightning wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals

92%

Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals

71%

Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals

45%

Logan Lightning 1+ goals

83%

Logan Lightning 2+ goals

52%

Logan Lightning 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)

67%

Logan Lightning (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Suburbs at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Suburbs attack 2.92 + Logan Lightning defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.50

Logan Lightning attack 1.84 + Eastern Suburbs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Eastern Suburbs scores more

54%

level

19%

Logan Lightning scores more

27%

Eastern Suburbs at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

32'

73'

77'

79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff