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Logan Lightning vs Capalaba — Queensland Premier League 2026

Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Capalaba
Capalaba
Unknown 82'
Unknown 81'
7/5/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 17Cornubia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Logan Lightning53%
×Draw21%
Capalaba26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Logan Lightning
2.19
Capalaba
1.51

Logan Lightning creates 45% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

creates per match

Logan Lightning
2.12
Capalaba
1.74

allows per match

Logan Lightning
1.28
Capalaba
2.26

finishing

Logan Lightning+0.00on par
Capalaba+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Logan Lightning ↓

Capalaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Logan Lightning or draw
74%
Logan Lightning or Capalaba
79%
Draw or Capalaba
47%

Winning margin

Logan Lightning wins by 2+
32%
Capalaba wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Logan Lightning 1+ goals
89%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
64%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
37%
Capalaba 1+ goals
78%
Capalaba 2+ goals
44%
Capalaba 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
67%
Capalaba (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Logan Lightning at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.28 · 43 matches

Capalaba away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Logan Lightning attack 2.12 + Capalaba defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.19

Capalaba attack 1.74 + Logan Lightning defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Logan Lightning scores more
53%
level
21%
Capalaba scores more
26%

Logan Lightning at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Logan Lightning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'
79'
81'
82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Logan Lightning vs Capalaba

Logan Lightning and Capalaba drew 1-1 in Queensland Premier League on July 5, 2024.

Goals: ? (81', 82').

The match was played at Cornubia Park in Brisbane.