Capalaba 1–4 Logan Lightning: Result & Stats

Capalaba

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Logan Lightning

Unknown 44'

Unknown 68', 25', 19', 11'

5/9/2025

Queensland Premier League · Round 3Max Haynes Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Capalaba31%

×Draw21%

Logan Lightning48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CapalabaExpected goals in this matchLogan Lightning

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

2.20

Capalaba

1.76

Logan Lightning

2.20

Logan Lightning creates 25% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 44 away

1.44

creates per match

1.84

2.56

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Capalaba

1.44

Logan Lightning

1.84

allows per match

Capalaba

2.56

Logan Lightning

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Capalaba+0.00on par

Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capalaba ↓

Logan Lightning →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Capalaba or draw

52%

Capalaba or Logan Lightning

79%

Draw or Logan Lightning

69%

Winning margin

Capalaba wins by 2+

16%

Logan Lightning wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Capalaba 1+ goals

83%

Capalaba 2+ goals

52%

Capalaba 3+ goals

26%

Logan Lightning 1+ goals

89%

Logan Lightning 2+ goals

64%

Logan Lightning 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Capalaba (draw refunded)

40%

Logan Lightning (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capalaba at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.56 · 43 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capalaba attack 1.44 + Logan Lightning defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.76

Logan Lightning attack 1.84 + Capalaba defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Capalaba scores more

31%

level

21%

Logan Lightning scores more

48%

Logan Lightning at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Logan Lightning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

19'

25'

44'

68'

89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff