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Logan Lightning vs Albany Creek — Queensland Premier League 2026

Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
FT
2 – 1
Albany Creek
Albany Creek
6/17/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 14Cornubia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Logan Lightning48%
×Draw24%
Albany Creek28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Logan Lightning
1.74
Albany Creek
1.27

Logan Lightning creates 37% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 11 away

creates per match

Logan Lightning
2.12
Albany Creek
1.27

allows per match

Logan Lightning
1.26
Albany Creek
1.36

finishing

Logan Lightning+0.00on par
Albany Creek+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Logan Lightning ↓

Albany Creek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Logan Lightning or draw
72%
Logan Lightning or Albany Creek
76%
Draw or Albany Creek
52%

Winning margin

Logan Lightning wins by 2+
26%
Albany Creek wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Logan Lightning 1+ goals
82%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
52%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
25%
Albany Creek 1+ goals
72%
Albany Creek 2+ goals
36%
Albany Creek 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
63%
Albany Creek (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Logan Lightning at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

Albany Creek away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Logan Lightning attack 2.12 + Albany Creek defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.74

Albany Creek attack 1.27 + Logan Lightning defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Logan Lightning scores more
48%
level
24%
Albany Creek scores more
28%

Logan Lightning at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Logan Lightning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Logan Lightning vs Albany Creek

Logan Lightning beat Albany Creek 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Cornubia Park in Brisbane.