Albany Creek 1–1 Logan Lightning: Result & Stats

Albany Creek

FT

1 – 1

Logan Lightning

3/11/2023

Queensland Premier League · Round 3Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Albany Creek40%

×Draw22%

Logan Lightning38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albany CreekExpected goals in this matchLogan Lightning

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.79

Albany Creek

1.86

Logan Lightning

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 44 away

1.64

creates per match

1.84

1.73

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Albany Creek

1.64

Logan Lightning

1.84

allows per match

Albany Creek

1.73

Logan Lightning

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albany Creek+0.00on par

Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albany Creek ↓

Logan Lightning →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Albany Creek or draw

62%

Albany Creek or Logan Lightning

78%

Draw or Logan Lightning

60%

Winning margin

Albany Creek wins by 2+

22%

Logan Lightning wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Albany Creek 1+ goals

84%

Albany Creek 2+ goals

55%

Albany Creek 3+ goals

28%

Logan Lightning 1+ goals

83%

Logan Lightning 2+ goals

53%

Logan Lightning 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Albany Creek (draw refunded)

52%

Logan Lightning (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albany Creek at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albany Creek attack 1.64 + Logan Lightning defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.86

Logan Lightning attack 1.84 + Albany Creek defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Albany Creek scores more

40%

level

22%

Logan Lightning scores more

38%

Albany Creek at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Albany Creek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff