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Loddefjord vs Fyllingsdalen — 3. Division - Girone 3 2026

Loddefjord
Loddefjord
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
Y. Estifanos 82'
E. Hornnes 36'
J. Westrheim 26'
M. Raum 43'
10/14/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 24Alvøen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Loddefjord54%
×Draw20%
Fyllingsdalen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loddefjord
2.24
Fyllingsdalen
1.52

Loddefjord creates 47% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Loddefjord
1.69
Fyllingsdalen
1.05

allows per match

Loddefjord
2.00
Fyllingsdalen
2.79

finishing

Loddefjord+0.00on par
Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loddefjord ↓

Fyllingsdalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Loddefjord or draw
74%
Loddefjord or Fyllingsdalen
80%
Draw or Fyllingsdalen
46%

Winning margin

Loddefjord wins by 2+
33%
Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Loddefjord 1+ goals
89%
Loddefjord 2+ goals
65%
Loddefjord 3+ goals
38%
Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
78%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
45%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Loddefjord (draw refunded)
67%
Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loddefjord at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Fyllingsdalen away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loddefjord attack 1.69 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.24

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.05 + Loddefjord defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Loddefjord scores more
54%
level
20%
Fyllingsdalen scores more
26%

Loddefjord at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Loddefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
J. Westrheim
36'
E. Hornnes
43'
M. Raum
82'
Y. Estifanos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Loddefjord 3–1 Fyllingsdalen

Loddefjord beat Fyllingsdalen 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on October 14, 2023.

Goals: J. Westrheim (26'), E. Hornnes (36'), M. Raum (43'), Y. Estifanos (82').

The match was played at Alvøen kunstgress in Godvik.