Lödde 2–2 Karlshamn: Result & Stats

Lödde

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Karlshamn

J. Edlund 58'

J. Ivarsson 12'

S. Hakansson 67', 19'

5/25/2024

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 9Tolvans IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lödde38%

×Draw23%

Karlshamn38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LöddeExpected goals in this matchKarlshamn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

Lödde

1.65

Karlshamn

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 53 away

1.31

creates per match

1.21

2.08

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Lödde

1.31

Karlshamn

1.21

allows per match

Lödde

2.08

Karlshamn

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lödde+0.00on par

Karlshamn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lödde ↓

Karlshamn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lödde or draw

62%

Lödde or Karlshamn

77%

Draw or Karlshamn

62%

Winning margin

Lödde wins by 2+

19%

Karlshamn wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Lödde 1+ goals

81%

Lödde 2+ goals

49%

Lödde 3+ goals

23%

Karlshamn 1+ goals

81%

Karlshamn 2+ goals

49%

Karlshamn 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Lödde (draw refunded)

50%

Karlshamn (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lödde at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Karlshamn away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.98 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lödde attack 1.31 + Karlshamn defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.65

Karlshamn attack 1.21 + Lödde defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lödde scores more

38%

level

23%

Karlshamn scores more

38%

Lödde at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lödde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

J. Ivarsson

19'

S. Hakansson

58'

J. Edlund

67'

S. Hakansson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff