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Karlshamn vs Lödde — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Karlshamn
Karlshamn
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lödde
Lödde
9/29/2024Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 23Vägga IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Karlshamn42%
×Draw25%
Lödde33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlshamn
1.51
Lödde
1.30

Karlshamn creates 16% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 13 away

creates per match

Karlshamn
1.33
Lödde
1.15

allows per match

Karlshamn
1.46
Lödde
1.69

finishing

Karlshamn+0.00on par
Lödde+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlshamn ↓

Lödde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Karlshamn or draw
67%
Karlshamn or Lödde
75%
Draw or Lödde
58%

Winning margin

Karlshamn wins by 2+
21%
Lödde wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Karlshamn 1+ goals
78%
Karlshamn 2+ goals
44%
Karlshamn 3+ goals
19%
Lödde 1+ goals
73%
Lödde 2+ goals
37%
Lödde 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Karlshamn (draw refunded)
56%
Lödde (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlshamn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

Lödde away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlshamn attack 1.33 + Lödde defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.51

Lödde attack 1.15 + Karlshamn defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Karlshamn scores more
42%
level
25%
Lödde scores more
33%

Karlshamn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karlshamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karlshamn vs Lödde

Karlshamn beat Lödde 3-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Vägga IP 1 in Karlshamn.