Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lödde vs IFK Trelleborg — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Lödde
Lödde
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IFK Trelleborg
IFK Trelleborg
Unknown 90+2', 73', 51'
4/14/2024Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 3Tolvans IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lödde32%
×Draw23%
IFK Trelleborg46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lödde
1.51
IFK Trelleborg
1.86

IFK Trelleborg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 45 away

creates per match

Lödde
1.31
IFK Trelleborg
1.64

allows per match

Lödde
2.08
IFK Trelleborg
1.71

finishing

Lödde+0.00on par
IFK Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lödde ↓

IFK Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lödde or draw
54%
Lödde or IFK Trelleborg
77%
Draw or IFK Trelleborg
68%

Winning margin

Lödde wins by 2+
15%
IFK Trelleborg wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Lödde 1+ goals
78%
Lödde 2+ goals
44%
Lödde 3+ goals
19%
IFK Trelleborg 1+ goals
84%
IFK Trelleborg 2+ goals
55%
IFK Trelleborg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Lödde (draw refunded)
41%
IFK Trelleborg (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lödde at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

IFK Trelleborg away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lödde attack 1.31 + IFK Trelleborg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.51

IFK Trelleborg attack 1.64 + Lödde defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lödde scores more
32%
level
23%
IFK Trelleborg scores more
46%

IFK Trelleborg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "IFK Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
73'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lödde vs IFK Trelleborg

Lödde beat IFK Trelleborg 3-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on April 14, 2024.

Goals: ? (51', 73', 90+2').

The match was played at Tolvans IP in Löddeköpinge.