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IFK Trelleborg vs Lödde — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

IFK Trelleborg
IFK Trelleborg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lödde
Lödde
Unknown 78'
Unknown 54'
8/11/2024Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 16Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Trelleborg53%
×Draw22%
Lödde25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Trelleborg
1.96
Lödde
1.28

IFK Trelleborg creates 53% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 13 away

creates per match

IFK Trelleborg
2.22
Lödde
1.15

allows per match

IFK Trelleborg
1.41
Lödde
1.69

finishing

IFK Trelleborg+0.00on par
Lödde+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Trelleborg ↓

Lödde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

IFK Trelleborg or draw
75%
IFK Trelleborg or Lödde
78%
Draw or Lödde
47%

Winning margin

IFK Trelleborg wins by 2+
31%
Lödde wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

IFK Trelleborg 1+ goals
86%
IFK Trelleborg 2+ goals
58%
IFK Trelleborg 3+ goals
31%
Lödde 1+ goals
72%
Lödde 2+ goals
37%
Lödde 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

IFK Trelleborg (draw refunded)
68%
Lödde (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Trelleborg at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

Lödde away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Trelleborg attack 2.22 + Lödde defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.96

Lödde attack 1.15 + IFK Trelleborg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

IFK Trelleborg scores more
53%
level
22%
Lödde scores more
25%

IFK Trelleborg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "IFK Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
68'
78'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: IFK Trelleborg 1–1 Lödde

IFK Trelleborg and Lödde drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on August 11, 2024.

Goals: ? (54', 78').

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.