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Lochau vs Koblach — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Lochau
Lochau
FT
6 – 1
Koblach
Koblach
10/1/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 12Stadion Hoferfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lochau60%
×Draw19%
Koblach21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lochau
2.43
Koblach
1.40

Lochau creates 74% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lochau
2.19
Koblach
1.53

allows per match

Lochau
1.27
Koblach
2.67

finishing

Lochau+0.00on par
Koblach+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lochau ↓

Koblach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Lochau or draw
79%
Lochau or Koblach
81%
Draw or Koblach
40%

Winning margin

Lochau wins by 2+
38%
Koblach wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lochau 1+ goals
91%
Lochau 2+ goals
69%
Lochau 3+ goals
43%
Koblach 1+ goals
75%
Koblach 2+ goals
41%
Koblach 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lochau (draw refunded)
74%
Koblach (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lochau at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.27 · 86 matches

Koblach away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lochau attack 2.19 + Koblach defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.43

Koblach attack 1.53 + Lochau defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lochau scores more
60%
level
19%
Koblach scores more
21%

Lochau at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lochau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lochau vs Koblach

Lochau beat Koblach 6-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Hoferfeld in Lochau.