Koblach 4–5 Lochau: Result & Stats

Koblach

FT

4 – 5

Lochau

5/17/2023

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 27Sportplatz Im Lohma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Koblach30%

×Draw22%

Lochau49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KoblachExpected goals in this matchLochau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.03

Koblach

1.56

Lochau

2.03

Lochau creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

1.53

creates per match

1.85

2.20

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Koblach

1.53

Lochau

1.85

allows per match

Koblach

2.20

Lochau

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Koblach+0.00on par

Lochau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koblach ↓

Lochau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Koblach or draw

51%

Koblach or Lochau

78%

Draw or Lochau

70%

Winning margin

Koblach wins by 2+

14%

Lochau wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Koblach 1+ goals

79%

Koblach 2+ goals

46%

Koblach 3+ goals

21%

Lochau 1+ goals

87%

Lochau 2+ goals

60%

Lochau 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Koblach (draw refunded)

38%

Lochau (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koblach at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Lochau away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.58 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koblach attack 1.53 + Lochau defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lochau attack 1.85 + Koblach defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Koblach scores more

30%

level

22%

Lochau scores more

49%

Lochau at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lochau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff