Lobos Buap 3–1 Club Tijuana: Result & Stats

Lobos Buap

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Club Tijuana

11/4/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Universitario BUAP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lobos Buap48%

×Draw24%

Club Tijuana27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lobos BuapExpected goals in this matchClub Tijuana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.18

Lobos Buap

1.64

Club Tijuana

1.18

Lobos Buap creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 135 away

1.35

creates per match

0.88

1.47

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Lobos Buap

1.35

Club Tijuana

0.88

allows per match

Lobos Buap

1.47

Club Tijuana

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lobos Buap+0.00on par

Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobos Buap ↓

Club Tijuana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lobos Buap or draw

73%

Lobos Buap or Club Tijuana

76%

Draw or Club Tijuana

52%

Winning margin

Lobos Buap wins by 2+

25%

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lobos Buap 1+ goals

81%

Lobos Buap 2+ goals

49%

Lobos Buap 3+ goals

23%

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

69%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

33%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lobos Buap (draw refunded)

64%

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobos Buap at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.92 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobos Buap attack 1.35 + Club Tijuana defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.64

Club Tijuana attack 0.88 + Lobos Buap defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lobos Buap scores more

48%

level

24%

Club Tijuana scores more

27%

Lobos Buap at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lobos Buap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff