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Club Tijuana vs Lobos Buap — Liga MX 2018

Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lobos Buap
Lobos Buap
4/20/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Club Tijuana54%
×Draw23%
Lobos Buap22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Tijuana
1.77
Lobos Buap
1.04

Club Tijuana creates 70% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 17 away

creates per match

Club Tijuana
1.54
Lobos Buap
0.88

allows per match

Club Tijuana
1.20
Lobos Buap
2.00

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.00on par
Lobos Buap+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Lobos Buap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw
78%
Club Tijuana or Lobos Buap
77%
Draw or Lobos Buap
46%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+
30%
Lobos Buap wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals
83%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
53%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
26%
Lobos Buap 1+ goals
65%
Lobos Buap 2+ goals
28%
Lobos Buap 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
71%
Lobos Buap (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.20 · 140 matches

Lobos Buap away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.54 + Lobos Buap defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lobos Buap attack 0.88 + Club Tijuana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Club Tijuana scores more
54%
level
23%
Lobos Buap scores more
22%

Club Tijuana at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Club Tijuana 1–2 Lobos Buap

Lobos Buap beat Club Tijuana 2-1 in Liga MX on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Caliente in Tijuana.