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LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR — Premier League 2019

LNZ Cherkasy
LNZ Cherkasy
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Kryvbas KR
Kryvbas KR
2/23/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Stadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy52%
×Draw26%
Kryvbas KR22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LNZ Cherkasy
1.52
Kryvbas KR
0.89

LNZ Cherkasy creates 71% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy
1.57
Kryvbas KR
0.94

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy
0.83
Kryvbas KR
1.47

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy-0.01on par
Kryvbas KR+0.06on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy ↓

Kryvbas KR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy or draw
78%
LNZ Cherkasy or Kryvbas KR
74%
Draw or Kryvbas KR
48%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+
27%
Kryvbas KR wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals
78%
LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
45%
LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals
20%
Kryvbas KR 1+ goals
59%
Kryvbas KR 2+ goals
22%
Kryvbas KR 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)
70%
Kryvbas KR (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 9 matches

Kryvbas KR away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.57 + Kryvbas KR defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kryvbas KR attack 0.94 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

LNZ Cherkasy scores more
52%
level
26%
Kryvbas KR scores more
22%

LNZ Cherkasy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR

Kryvbas KR beat LNZ Cherkasy 3-0 in Premier League on February 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kolos in Kovalivka.