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Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy — Premier League 2019

Kryvbas KR
Kryvbas KR
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
LNZ Cherkasy
LNZ Cherkasy
10/26/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Stadion Hirnyk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kryvbas KR22%
×Draw25%
LNZ Cherkasy53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kryvbas KR
0.94
LNZ Cherkasy
1.59

LNZ Cherkasy creates 69% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kryvbas KR
1.41
LNZ Cherkasy
1.37

allows per match

Kryvbas KR
1.81
LNZ Cherkasy
0.47

finishing

Kryvbas KR+0.84scores more
LNZ Cherkasy+0.46scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kryvbas KR ↓

LNZ Cherkasy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kryvbas KR or draw
47%
Kryvbas KR or LNZ Cherkasy
75%
Draw or LNZ Cherkasy
78%

Winning margin

Kryvbas KR wins by 2+
8%
LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Kryvbas KR 1+ goals
61%
Kryvbas KR 2+ goals
24%
Kryvbas KR 3+ goals
7%
LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals
80%
LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
47%
LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kryvbas KR (draw refunded)
30%
LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kryvbas KR at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.81 · 8 matches

LNZ Cherkasy away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.47 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kryvbas KR attack 1.41 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.94

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.37 + Kryvbas KR defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kryvbas KR scores more
22%
level
25%
LNZ Cherkasy scores more
53%

LNZ Cherkasy at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kryvbas KR 3–1 LNZ Cherkasy

Kryvbas KR beat LNZ Cherkasy 3-1 in Premier League on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hirnyk in Kryvyi Rih.