Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv — Premier League 2019

LNZ Cherkasy
LNZ Cherkasy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
3/6/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Cherkasy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy26%
×Draw24%
Dynamo Kyiv50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LNZ Cherkasy
1.12
Dynamo Kyiv
1.66

Dynamo Kyiv creates 48% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy
1.57
Dynamo Kyiv
2.49

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy
0.83
Dynamo Kyiv
0.67

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy-0.01on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.51scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy or draw
50%
LNZ Cherkasy or Dynamo Kyiv
76%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
74%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+
10%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals
67%
LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
31%
LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals
10%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
81%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
49%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)
34%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 9 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.57 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.12

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.49 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

LNZ Cherkasy scores more
26%
level
24%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
50%

Dynamo Kyiv at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: LNZ Cherkasy 1–2 Dynamo Kyiv

Dynamo Kyiv beat LNZ Cherkasy 2-1 in Premier League on March 6, 2025.

The match was played at Cherkasy Arena in Cherkasy.