Dynamo Kyiv 1–1 LNZ Cherkasy: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

LNZ Cherkasy

4/8/2024

Premier League · Round 23Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv45%

×Draw26%

LNZ Cherkasy29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchLNZ Cherkasy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.11

Dynamo Kyiv

1.46

LNZ Cherkasy

1.11

Dynamo Kyiv creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.44

creates per match

1.37

0.86

allows per match

0.47

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

2.44

LNZ Cherkasy

1.37

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.86

LNZ Cherkasy

0.47

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.64scores less

LNZ Cherkasy+0.46scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

LNZ Cherkasy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

71%

Dynamo Kyiv or LNZ Cherkasy

74%

Draw or LNZ Cherkasy

55%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

22%

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

77%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

43%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

18%

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals

67%

LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals

30%

LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

61%

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.86 · 5 matches

LNZ Cherkasy away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.47 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.44 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.37 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

45%

level

26%

LNZ Cherkasy scores more

29%

Dynamo Kyiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff