LNZ Cherkasy 2–4 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

LNZ Cherkasy

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Dynamo Kyiv

M. Priadun 90+1'

V. Boiko 61' (pen)

N. Voloshyn 90+3'

V. Buialskyi 77' (pen)

A. Yarmolenko 72'

V. Brazhko 3'

9/23/2023

Premier League · Round 8Cherkasy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy26%

×Draw24%

Dynamo Kyiv50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LNZ CherkasyExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.66

LNZ Cherkasy

1.12

Dynamo Kyiv

1.66

Dynamo Kyiv creates 48% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.57

creates per match

2.49

0.83

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy

1.57

Dynamo Kyiv

2.49

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy

0.83

Dynamo Kyiv

0.67

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy-0.01on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.51scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy or draw

50%

LNZ Cherkasy or Dynamo Kyiv

76%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

74%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+

10%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals

67%

LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals

31%

LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals

10%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

81%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

49%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)

34%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 9 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.57 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.12

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.49 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

LNZ Cherkasy scores more

26%

level

24%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

50%

Dynamo Kyiv at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

V. Brazhko↳ O. Andriievskyi

29'

Denys Oliynyk

34'

V. Boiko← M. Lopyrionok

44'

Denys Norenkov

61'

V. BoikoPenalty

64'

Benito← V. Vanat

64'

N. Voloshyn← S. Diallo

64'

O. Syrota← D. Popov

65'

Nazar Voloshyn

66'

Vitaliy Buyalskyi

66'

S. Shestakov← D. Oliinyk

66'

M. Priadun← H. Pasich

66'

I. Tyshchenko← O. Khoblenko

72'

A. Yarmolenko↳ V. Brazhko

76'

Nazarii Muravskyi

77'

V. BuialskyiPenalty

79'

A. Savin← P. Stasiuk

82'

N. Malysh← V. Dubinchak

82'

R. Ramadani← O. Andriievskyi

90+1'

M. Priadun↳ D. Norenkov

90+3'

N. Voloshyn↳ Benito

Shots

Statistics

LNZDynamo

Overview

13Total Shots10

3Corners12

10Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots10

6On Target7

7Off Target3

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0