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LNZ Cherkasy U19 vs Chornomorets U19 — U19 League 2023

LNZ Cherkasy U19
LNZ Cherkasy U19
FT
0 – 3
Chornomorets U19
Chornomorets U19
7/29/2023U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 1LNZ-Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy U1937%
×Draw23%
Chornomorets U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LNZ Cherkasy U19
1.59
Chornomorets U19
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy U19
1.02
Chornomorets U19
0.87

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy U19
2.42
Chornomorets U19
2.17

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy U19+0.00on par
Chornomorets U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy U19 ↓

Chornomorets U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy U19 or draw
60%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 or Chornomorets U19
77%
Draw or Chornomorets U19
63%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy U19 wins by 2+
18%
Chornomorets U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy U19 1+ goals
80%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 2+ goals
47%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 3+ goals
21%
Chornomorets U19 1+ goals
81%
Chornomorets U19 2+ goals
49%
Chornomorets U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy U19 (draw refunded)
48%
Chornomorets U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy U19 at home — creates 1.02, concedes 2.42 · 45 matches

Chornomorets U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy U19 attack 1.02 + Chornomorets U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.59

Chornomorets U19 attack 0.87 + LNZ Cherkasy U19 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

LNZ Cherkasy U19 scores more
37%
level
23%
Chornomorets U19 scores more
40%

Chornomorets U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chornomorets U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: LNZ Cherkasy U19 0–3 Chornomorets U19

Chornomorets U19 beat LNZ Cherkasy U19 3-0 in U19 League on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at LNZ-Аrena in Lebedyn.