Chornomorets U19 0–3 LNZ Cherkasy U19

Chornomorets U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

LNZ Cherkasy U19

4/4/2025

U19 League · Round 23SK Lyustdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chornomorets U1949%

×Draw23%

LNZ Cherkasy U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chornomorets U19Expected goals in this matchLNZ Cherkasy U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.29

Chornomorets U19

1.77

LNZ Cherkasy U19

1.29

Chornomorets U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

0.83

creates per match

0.98

1.60

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Chornomorets U19

0.83

LNZ Cherkasy U19

0.98

allows per match

Chornomorets U19

1.60

LNZ Cherkasy U19

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chornomorets U19+0.00on par

LNZ Cherkasy U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chornomorets U19 ↓

LNZ Cherkasy U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chornomorets U19 or draw

72%

Chornomorets U19 or LNZ Cherkasy U19

77%

Draw or LNZ Cherkasy U19

51%

Winning margin

Chornomorets U19 wins by 2+

26%

LNZ Cherkasy U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chornomorets U19 1+ goals

83%

Chornomorets U19 2+ goals

53%

Chornomorets U19 3+ goals

26%

LNZ Cherkasy U19 1+ goals

72%

LNZ Cherkasy U19 2+ goals

37%

LNZ Cherkasy U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chornomorets U19 (draw refunded)

63%

LNZ Cherkasy U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chornomorets U19 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

LNZ Cherkasy U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chornomorets U19 attack 0.83 + LNZ Cherkasy U19 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

LNZ Cherkasy U19 attack 0.98 + Chornomorets U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chornomorets U19 scores more

49%

level

23%

LNZ Cherkasy U19 scores more

28%

Chornomorets U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chornomorets U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff