Llosetense 1–1 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Llosetense

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

C. Ansu 73'

Jorge Bengoetxea 17'

4/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 28Camp Municipal Es Puig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Llosetense24%

×Draw25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlosetenseExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.57

Llosetense

1.00

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.57

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 57% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 44 away

1.41

creates per match

2.00

1.14

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Llosetense

1.41

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Llosetense

1.14

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llosetense+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llosetense ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Llosetense or draw

49%

Llosetense or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

75%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

76%

Winning margin

Llosetense wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Llosetense 1+ goals

63%

Llosetense 2+ goals

26%

Llosetense 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

79%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

46%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Llosetense (draw refunded)

32%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Llosetense at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.14 · 115 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Llosetense attack 1.41 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Llosetense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Llosetense scores more

24%

level

25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

51%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Jorge Bengoetxea

62'

C. Ansu← Youssef

62'

Marquitos← Dani Sales

67'

Juanca Alarcón← Felipao

68'

Jose Mosquera← S. Manuel

73'

C. Ansu

78'

Álex Sánchez← Mario Riquelme

78'

Roberto Fernández← Jorge Bengoetxea

78'

David Sánchez← F. Núñez

90'

Ale← Antoni Torregrosa

Llosetense

Ibiza

Torrelavi

Cruz

Villar

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Nico López

62'▲C. Ansu←▼Youssef

68'▲Jose Mosquera←▼S. Manuel

90'▲Ale←▼Antoni Torregrosa

Llosetense substitutes

AnsuMosqueraAle

Manager: Raúl Casañ

62'▲Marquitos←▼Dani Sales

67'▲Juanca Alarcón←▼Felipao

78'▲Álex Sánchez←▼Mario Riquelme

78'▲Roberto Fernández←▼Jorge Bengoetxea

78'▲David Sánchez←▼F. Núñez

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

MarquitosAlarcónSánchezFernándezSánchez

Match Recap: Llosetense vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Llosetense and Ibiza Islas Pitiusas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 7, 2024.

Goals: Jorge Bengoetxea (17'), C. Ansu (73').

The match was played at Camp Municipal Es Puig in Mallorca.

Llosetense vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Llosetense vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas