Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1–0 Llosetense: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Llosetense

Álex Sánchez 5'

11/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 11Estadi Municipal Can Misses III

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas58%

×Draw24%

Llosetense19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchLlosetense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.88

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.74

Llosetense

0.88

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 98% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 116 away

2.14

creates per match

1.31

0.44

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Llosetense

1.31

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Llosetense

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Llosetense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Llosetense →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

81%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Llosetense

76%

Draw or Llosetense

42%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

32%

Llosetense wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

82%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

52%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

25%

Llosetense 1+ goals

59%

Llosetense 2+ goals

22%

Llosetense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

75%

Llosetense (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Llosetense away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Llosetense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.74

Llosetense attack 1.31 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

58%

level

24%

Llosetense scores more

19%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Álex Sánchez

46'

José Rivas← Toni Abolafio

60'

Raul Caballero← Xavi Bauzà

67'

Mario Hernández← Marquitos

72'

Matheus← Miguel Zamora

82'

Jesús Pozo← Dani Sales

90+2'

Pablo Cortijo← C. Carosso

Ibiza

Llosetense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Raúl Casañ

67'▲Mario Hernández←▼Marquitos

82'▲Jesús Pozo←▼Dani Sales

90+2'▲Pablo Cortijo←▼C. Carosso

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

HernándezPozoCortijo

Manager: Nico López

46'▲José Rivas←▼Toni Abolafio

60'▲Raul Caballero←▼Xavi Bauzà

72'▲Matheus←▼Miguel Zamora

Llosetense substitutes

RivasCaballeroMatheus

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Llosetense

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Llosetense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 19, 2023.

Goals: Álex Sánchez (5').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Can Misses III in Eivissa.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Llosetense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Llosetense