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Llosetense vs Andratx — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Llosetense
Llosetense
CANC
00:00
Andratx
Andratx
4/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 32Camp Municipal Es Puig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Llosetense34%
×Draw25%
Andratx41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llosetense
1.31
Andratx
1.47

Andratx creates 12% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 41 away

creates per match

Llosetense
1.41
Andratx
1.80

allows per match

Llosetense
1.14
Andratx
1.22

finishing

Llosetense+0.00on par
Andratx+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llosetense ↓

Andratx →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Llosetense or draw
59%
Llosetense or Andratx
75%
Draw or Andratx
66%

Winning margin

Llosetense wins by 2+
15%
Andratx wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Llosetense 1+ goals
73%
Llosetense 2+ goals
38%
Llosetense 3+ goals
14%
Andratx 1+ goals
77%
Andratx 2+ goals
43%
Andratx 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Llosetense (draw refunded)
45%
Andratx (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llosetense at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.14 · 115 matches

Andratx away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llosetense attack 1.41 + Andratx defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Andratx attack 1.80 + Llosetense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Llosetense scores more
34%
level
25%
Andratx scores more
41%

Andratx at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Andratx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Llosetense face Andratx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with Llosetense hosting Andratx. Match starts April 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Llosetense host Andratx at Camp Municipal Es Puig.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.