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Andratx vs Llosetense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Andratx
Andratx
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Llosetense
Llosetense
11/5/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 9Camp Municipal Sa Plana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Andratx55%
×Draw23%
Llosetense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andratx
1.77
Llosetense
1.02

Andratx creates 74% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 116 away

creates per match

Andratx
2.21
Llosetense
1.31

allows per match

Andratx
0.74
Llosetense
1.34

finishing

Andratx+0.00on par
Llosetense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andratx ↓

Llosetense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Andratx or draw
78%
Andratx or Llosetense
77%
Draw or Llosetense
45%

Winning margin

Andratx wins by 2+
31%
Llosetense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Andratx 1+ goals
83%
Andratx 2+ goals
53%
Andratx 3+ goals
26%
Llosetense 1+ goals
64%
Llosetense 2+ goals
27%
Llosetense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Andratx (draw refunded)
72%
Llosetense (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andratx at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Llosetense away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andratx attack 2.21 + Llosetense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.77

Llosetense attack 1.31 + Andratx defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Andratx scores more
55%
level
23%
Llosetense scores more
22%

Andratx at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Andratx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andratx vs Llosetense

Andratx and Llosetense drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Camp Municipal Sa Plana in Andratx.