Llerenense 2–0 Badajoz: Result & Stats

Llerenense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Badajoz

6/8/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Fernando Robina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Llerenense49%

×Draw26%

Badajoz25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlerenenseExpected goals in this matchBadajoz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.00

Llerenense

1.50

Badajoz

1.00

Llerenense creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

1.67

0.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Llerenense

1.67

Badajoz

1.67

allows per match

Llerenense

0.33

Badajoz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llerenense+0.00on par

Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llerenense ↓

Badajoz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Llerenense or draw

75%

Llerenense or Badajoz

74%

Draw or Badajoz

51%

Winning margin

Llerenense wins by 2+

25%

Badajoz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Llerenense 1+ goals

78%

Llerenense 2+ goals

44%

Llerenense 3+ goals

19%

Badajoz 1+ goals

63%

Badajoz 2+ goals

26%

Badajoz 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Llerenense (draw refunded)

66%

Badajoz (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llerenense at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Badajoz away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llerenense attack 1.67 + Badajoz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Badajoz attack 1.67 + Llerenense defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Llerenense scores more

49%

level

26%

Badajoz scores more

25%

Llerenense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Llerenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff