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Llerenense vs Badajoz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Llerenense
Llerenense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Badajoz
Badajoz
2/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 20Estadio Fernando Robina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Llerenense33%
×Draw29%
Badajoz38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llerenense
1.03
Badajoz
1.13

Badajoz creates 10% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 37 away

creates per match

Llerenense
1.38
Badajoz
1.35

allows per match

Llerenense
0.91
Badajoz
0.68

finishing

Llerenense+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llerenense ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Llerenense or draw
62%
Llerenense or Badajoz
71%
Draw or Badajoz
67%

Winning margin

Llerenense wins by 2+
12%
Badajoz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Llerenense 1+ goals
64%
Llerenense 2+ goals
28%
Llerenense 3+ goals
9%
Badajoz 1+ goals
68%
Badajoz 2+ goals
31%
Badajoz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Llerenense (draw refunded)
46%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llerenense at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Badajoz away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llerenense attack 1.38 + Badajoz defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.03

Badajoz attack 1.35 + Llerenense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Llerenense scores more
33%
level
29%
Badajoz scores more
38%

Badajoz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llerenense vs Badajoz

Llerenense beat Badajoz 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Robina in Llerena.