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Lleida Esportiu vs Cornellà — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Lleida Esportiu
Lleida Esportiu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cornellà
Cornellà
P. Russo 50'
Aliaga 76'
11/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Camp d'Esports de Lleida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lleida Esportiu31%
×Draw31%
Cornellà38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lleida Esportiu
0.91
Cornellà
1.06

Cornellà creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Lleida Esportiu
0.65
Cornellà
1.11

allows per match

Lleida Esportiu
1.00
Cornellà
1.17

finishing

Lleida Esportiu+0.00on par
Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lleida Esportiu ↓

Cornellà →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Lleida Esportiu or draw
62%
Lleida Esportiu or Cornellà
69%
Draw or Cornellà
69%

Winning margin

Lleida Esportiu wins by 2+
11%
Cornellà wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lleida Esportiu 1+ goals
60%
Lleida Esportiu 2+ goals
23%
Lleida Esportiu 3+ goals
6%
Cornellà 1+ goals
65%
Cornellà 2+ goals
29%
Cornellà 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lleida Esportiu (draw refunded)
44%
Cornellà (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lleida Esportiu at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Cornellà away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lleida Esportiu attack 0.65 + Cornellà defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.91

Cornellà attack 1.11 + Lleida Esportiu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lleida Esportiu scores more
31%
level
31%
Cornellà scores more
38%

Cornellà at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
P. Russo
76'
Aliaga
Lleida
Cornellà
Iñigo Idiákez
Manager: Iñigo Idiákez
Lopo
Manager: Lopo

Lleida Esportiu 1 – 1 Cornellà

Lleida Esportiu and Cornellà drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 23, 2025.

Goals: P. Russo (50'), Aliaga (76').

The match was played at Camp d'Esports de Lleida in Lleida.