Cornellà 2–1 Lleida Esportiu: Result & Stats

Cornellà

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lleida Esportiu

4/3/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 29Nou Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cornellà63%

×Draw22%

Lleida Esportiu15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchLleida Esportiu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.74

Cornellà

1.82

Lleida Esportiu

0.74

Cornellà creates 146% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

1.94

creates per match

0.59

0.89

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Cornellà

1.94

Lleida Esportiu

0.59

allows per match

Cornellà

0.89

Lleida Esportiu

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Lleida Esportiu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Lleida Esportiu →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

85%

Cornellà or Lleida Esportiu

78%

Draw or Lleida Esportiu

37%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

37%

Lleida Esportiu wins by 2+

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

84%

Cornellà 2+ goals

54%

Cornellà 3+ goals

27%

Lleida Esportiu 1+ goals

52%

Lleida Esportiu 2+ goals

17%

Lleida Esportiu 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

81%

Lleida Esportiu (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Lleida Esportiu away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.94 + Lleida Esportiu defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.82

Lleida Esportiu attack 0.59 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Cornellà scores more

63%

level

22%

Lleida Esportiu scores more

15%

Cornellà at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Cornellà 2–1 Lleida Esportiu

Cornellà beat Lleida Esportiu 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 3, 2026.

The match was played at Nou Municipal de Cornella in Cornella de Llobregat.

Cornellà vs Lleida Esportiu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Cornellà 2–1 Lleida Esportiu