Lleida Esportiu 0–1 Cerdanyola del Vallès

Lleida Esportiu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cerdanyola del Vallès

4/3/2022

League #877 · Group 3 - 28Camp d'Esports de Lleida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lleida Esportiu53%

×Draw32%

Cerdanyola del Vallès16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lleida EsportiuExpected goals in this matchCerdanyola del Vallès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.50

Lleida Esportiu

1.17

Cerdanyola del Vallès

0.50

Lleida Esportiu creates 134% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

0.67

0.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Lleida Esportiu

1.33

Cerdanyola del Vallès

0.67

allows per match

Lleida Esportiu

0.33

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lleida Esportiu+0.00on par

Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lleida Esportiu ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Lleida Esportiu or draw

84%

Lleida Esportiu or Cerdanyola del Vallès

68%

Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès

47%

Winning margin

Lleida Esportiu wins by 2+

23%

Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Lleida Esportiu 1+ goals

69%

Lleida Esportiu 2+ goals

33%

Lleida Esportiu 3+ goals

11%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals

39%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals

9%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Lleida Esportiu (draw refunded)

77%

Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lleida Esportiu at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lleida Esportiu attack 1.33 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 0.67 + Lleida Esportiu defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lleida Esportiu scores more

53%

level

32%

Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more

16%

Lleida Esportiu at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lleida Esportiu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff