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Cerdanyola del Vallès vs Lleida Esportiu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Cerdanyola del Vallès
Cerdanyola del Vallès
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lleida Esportiu
Lleida Esportiu
11/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 9Estadio Municipal Les Fontetes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès49%
×Draw26%
Lleida Esportiu25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.51
Lleida Esportiu
1.01

Cerdanyola del Vallès creates 50% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.31
Lleida Esportiu
0.59

allows per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.43
Lleida Esportiu
1.71

finishing

Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par
Lleida Esportiu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerdanyola del Vallès ↓

Lleida Esportiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cerdanyola del Vallès or draw
75%
Cerdanyola del Vallès or Lleida Esportiu
74%
Draw or Lleida Esportiu
51%

Winning margin

Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+
25%
Lleida Esportiu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals
78%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals
44%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals
19%
Lleida Esportiu 1+ goals
64%
Lleida Esportiu 2+ goals
27%
Lleida Esportiu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)
66%
Lleida Esportiu (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerdanyola del Vallès at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Lleida Esportiu away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.31 + Lleida Esportiu defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.51

Lleida Esportiu attack 0.59 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more
49%
level
26%
Lleida Esportiu scores more
25%

Cerdanyola del Vallès at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cerdanyola del Vallès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Cerdanyola del Vallès 2–2 Lleida Esportiu

Cerdanyola del Vallès and Lleida Esportiu drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Les Fontetes in Cerdanyola del Vallès.