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Llapi vs Liria Prizren — Superliga 2019

Llapi
Llapi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Liria Prizren
Liria Prizren
10/8/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 9Stadiumi Zahir Pajaziti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Llapi58%
×Draw22%
Liria Prizren20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llapi
1.92
Liria Prizren
1.01

Llapi creates 90% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 18 away

creates per match

Llapi
1.50
Liria Prizren
0.83

allows per match

Llapi
1.20
Liria Prizren
2.33

finishing

Llapi+0.00on par
Liria Prizren+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llapi ↓

Liria Prizren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Llapi or draw
80%
Llapi or Liria Prizren
78%
Draw or Liria Prizren
42%

Winning margin

Llapi wins by 2+
34%
Liria Prizren wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Llapi 1+ goals
85%
Llapi 2+ goals
57%
Llapi 3+ goals
30%
Liria Prizren 1+ goals
64%
Liria Prizren 2+ goals
27%
Liria Prizren 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Llapi (draw refunded)
75%
Liria Prizren (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llapi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 125 matches

Liria Prizren away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llapi attack 1.50 + Liria Prizren defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Liria Prizren attack 0.83 + Llapi defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Llapi scores more
58%
level
22%
Liria Prizren scores more
20%

Llapi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Llapi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Llapi 2–0 Liria Prizren

Llapi beat Liria Prizren 2-0 in Superliga on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Zahir Pajaziti in Besiana, Podujevo.