Liria Prizren 2–3 Llapi: Result & Stats | Cup

Liria Prizren

FT

2 – 3

Llapi

2/4/2023

Cup · Round of 16Stadiumi Përparim Thaçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Liria Prizren23%

×Draw22%

Llapi56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liria PrizrenExpected goals in this matchLlapi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.96

Liria Prizren

1.17

Llapi

1.96

Llapi creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

1.40

creates per match

1.93

2.00

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Liria Prizren

1.40

Llapi

1.93

allows per match

Liria Prizren

2.00

Llapi

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liria Prizren+0.00on par

Llapi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liria Prizren ↓

Llapi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Liria Prizren or draw

44%

Liria Prizren or Llapi

78%

Draw or Llapi

77%

Winning margin

Liria Prizren wins by 2+

9%

Llapi wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Liria Prizren 1+ goals

69%

Liria Prizren 2+ goals

33%

Liria Prizren 3+ goals

11%

Llapi 1+ goals

86%

Llapi 2+ goals

58%

Llapi 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Liria Prizren (draw refunded)

29%

Llapi (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liria Prizren at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Llapi away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liria Prizren attack 1.40 + Llapi defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Llapi attack 1.93 + Liria Prizren defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Liria Prizren scores more

23%

level

22%

Llapi scores more

56%

Llapi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Llapi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff