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Llapi vs Fushë Kosova — Superliga 2019

Llapi
Llapi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fushë Kosova
Fushë Kosova
11/2/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 12Stadiumi Zahir Pajaziti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Llapi62%
×Draw22%
Fushë Kosova15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llapi
1.83
Fushë Kosova
0.77

Llapi creates 138% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 18 away

creates per match

Llapi
1.50
Fushë Kosova
0.33

allows per match

Llapi
1.20
Fushë Kosova
2.17

finishing

Llapi+0.00on par
Fushë Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llapi ↓

Fushë Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Llapi or draw
85%
Llapi or Fushë Kosova
78%
Draw or Fushë Kosova
38%

Winning margin

Llapi wins by 2+
37%
Fushë Kosova wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Llapi 1+ goals
84%
Llapi 2+ goals
54%
Llapi 3+ goals
28%
Fushë Kosova 1+ goals
54%
Fushë Kosova 2+ goals
18%
Fushë Kosova 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Llapi (draw refunded)
80%
Fushë Kosova (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llapi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 125 matches

Fushë Kosova away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llapi attack 1.50 + Fushë Kosova defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Fushë Kosova attack 0.33 + Llapi defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Llapi scores more
62%
level
22%
Fushë Kosova scores more
15%

Llapi at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Llapi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Llapi 1–1 Fushë Kosova

Llapi and Fushë Kosova drew 1-1 in Superliga on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Zahir Pajaziti in Besiana, Podujevo.