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Fushë Kosova vs Llapi — Superliga 2019

Fushë Kosova
Fushë Kosova
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Llapi
Llapi
8/27/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 3Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Fushë Kosova31%
×Draw27%
Llapi42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fushë Kosova
1.11
Llapi
1.33

Llapi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 125 away

creates per match

Fushë Kosova
0.78
Llapi
1.28

allows per match

Fushë Kosova
1.39
Llapi
1.44

finishing

Fushë Kosova+0.00on par
Llapi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fushë Kosova ↓

Llapi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fushë Kosova or draw
58%
Fushë Kosova or Llapi
73%
Draw or Llapi
69%

Winning margin

Fushë Kosova wins by 2+
12%
Llapi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Fushë Kosova 1+ goals
67%
Fushë Kosova 2+ goals
30%
Fushë Kosova 3+ goals
10%
Llapi 1+ goals
74%
Llapi 2+ goals
38%
Llapi 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fushë Kosova (draw refunded)
43%
Llapi (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fushë Kosova at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Llapi away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fushë Kosova attack 0.78 + Llapi defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.11

Llapi attack 1.28 + Fushë Kosova defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fushë Kosova scores more
31%
level
27%
Llapi scores more
42%

Llapi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Llapi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Fushë Kosova 1–2 Llapi

Llapi beat Fushë Kosova 2-1 in Superliga on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi in Lipjan.