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Llaneros W vs Atlético Bucaramanga W — Liga Femenina 2020

Llaneros W
Llaneros W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Bucaramanga W
Atlético Bucaramanga W
2/19/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 1Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Llaneros W57%
×Draw23%
Atlético Bucaramanga W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros W
1.84
Atlético Bucaramanga W
1.00

Llaneros W creates 84% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 39 away

creates per match

Llaneros W
1.24
Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.49

allows per match

Llaneros W
1.52
Atlético Bucaramanga W
2.44

finishing

Llaneros W+0.00on par
Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros W ↓

Atlético Bucaramanga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Llaneros W or draw
80%
Llaneros W or Atlético Bucaramanga W
77%
Draw or Atlético Bucaramanga W
43%

Winning margin

Llaneros W wins by 2+
33%
Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Llaneros W 1+ goals
84%
Llaneros W 2+ goals
55%
Llaneros W 3+ goals
28%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Llaneros W (draw refunded)
74%
Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros W at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W away — creates 0.49, concedes 2.44 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros W attack 1.24 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.84

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.49 + Llaneros W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Llaneros W scores more
57%
level
23%
Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more
20%

Llaneros W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Llaneros W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros W vs Atlético Bucaramanga W

Llaneros W beat Atlético Bucaramanga W 2-1 in Liga Femenina on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bello Horizonte in Villavicencio.