Atlético Bucaramanga W 0–2 Llaneros W

Atlético Bucaramanga W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Llaneros W

2/26/2022

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 2Cancha Marte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W37%

×Draw27%

Llaneros W36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Bucaramanga WExpected goals in this matchLlaneros W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.23

Atlético Bucaramanga W

1.24

Llaneros W

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 41 away

0.55

creates per match

0.71

1.76

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W

0.55

Llaneros W

0.71

allows per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W

1.76

Llaneros W

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par

Llaneros W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Bucaramanga W ↓

Llaneros W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Bucaramanga W or draw

64%

Atlético Bucaramanga W or Llaneros W

73%

Draw or Llaneros W

63%

Winning margin

Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+

16%

Llaneros W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals

71%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals

35%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals

13%

Llaneros W 1+ goals

71%

Llaneros W 2+ goals

35%

Llaneros W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)

50%

Llaneros W (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Bucaramanga W at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

Llaneros W away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.55 + Llaneros W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.24

Llaneros W attack 0.71 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more

37%

level

27%

Llaneros W scores more

36%

Atlético Bucaramanga W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Bucaramanga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff