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Llaneros vs Leones FC — Primera B 2018

Llaneros
Llaneros
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Leones FC
Leones FC
8/5/2023Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 3Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Llaneros49%
×Draw25%
Leones FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros
1.57
Leones FC
1.08

Llaneros creates 45% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 127 away

creates per match

Llaneros
1.45
Leones FC
1.29

allows per match

Llaneros
0.87
Leones FC
1.69

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par
Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Leones FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw
74%
Llaneros or Leones FC
75%
Draw or Leones FC
51%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+
25%
Leones FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals
79%
Llaneros 2+ goals
46%
Llaneros 3+ goals
21%
Leones FC 1+ goals
66%
Leones FC 2+ goals
29%
Leones FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)
65%
Leones FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.87 · 134 matches

Leones FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.69 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.45 + Leones FC defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.57

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Llaneros defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Llaneros scores more
49%
level
25%
Leones FC scores more
26%

Llaneros at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Llaneros 4–3 Leones FC

Llaneros beat Leones FC 4-3 in Primera B on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bello Horizonte in Villavicencio.