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Leones FC vs Llaneros — Primera B 2018

Leones FC
Leones FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Llaneros
Llaneros
2/22/2023Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 3Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Leones FC42%
×Draw29%
Llaneros29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones FC
1.22
Llaneros
0.96

Leones FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 134 away

creates per match

Leones FC
1.29
Llaneros
0.99

allows per match

Leones FC
0.94
Llaneros
1.15

finishing

Leones FC+0.00on par
Llaneros+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones FC ↓

Llaneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Leones FC or draw
71%
Leones FC or Llaneros
71%
Draw or Llaneros
58%

Winning margin

Leones FC wins by 2+
18%
Llaneros wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Leones FC 1+ goals
70%
Leones FC 2+ goals
34%
Leones FC 3+ goals
12%
Llaneros 1+ goals
62%
Llaneros 2+ goals
25%
Llaneros 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leones FC (draw refunded)
59%
Llaneros (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 126 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.15 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Llaneros defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Llaneros attack 0.99 + Leones FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leones FC scores more
42%
level
29%
Llaneros scores more
29%

Leones FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leones FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Leones FC 0–1 Llaneros

Llaneros beat Leones FC 1-0 in Primera B on February 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí in Itagüí.