Llaneros 2–1 Deportivo Pasto: Result & Stats

Llaneros

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Deportivo Pasto

F. Meza 28'

A. Lopez 4'

Y. Valois 11'

8/23/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 8Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Llaneros37%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Pasto34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlanerosExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.06

Llaneros

1.12

Deportivo Pasto

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.15

creates per match

1.24

0.89

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Llaneros

1.15

Deportivo Pasto

1.24

allows per match

Llaneros

0.89

Deportivo Pasto

1.09

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Llaneros-0.24scores less

Deportivo Pasto+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw

66%

Llaneros or Deportivo Pasto

71%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

63%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+

15%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals

67%

Llaneros 2+ goals

31%

Llaneros 3+ goals

10%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)

52%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.89 · 11 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.15 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.24 + Llaneros defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Llaneros scores more

37%

level

29%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

34%

Llaneros at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

F. Meza

Llaneros

7.9

Match Events

4'

A. Lopez↳ J. Angulo

11'

Y. Valois↳ D. Camacho

15'

21'

28'

44'

46'

F. Villa← M. S. Jimenez

46'

F. Espinal← J. Bernal

66'

C. Sierra← Y. Goez

66'

B. Uruena← D. Mantilla

66'

J. Rivas← F. Jaramillo

66'

J. Mendez← G. Ritacco

76'

H. H. Mena Posada← G. Montes

76'

B. Benitez← M. Sierra

76'

M. Rangel← E. Bodencer

76'

P. Preciado← D. Camacho

81'

89'

90+5'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LlanerosDeportivo

Overview

44%Possession56%

8Total Shots10

1Corners5

8Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots10

3On Target2

4Off Target4

1Blocked4

4Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

273Total Passes349

204Accurate Passes273

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls18

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2