Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Llaneros: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pasto

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Llaneros

F. Bone 22' (pen)

3/8/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 8Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Pasto49%

×Draw29%

Llaneros23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchLlaneros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.79

Deportivo Pasto

1.31

Llaneros

0.79

Deportivo Pasto creates 66% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.06

creates per match

0.75

0.84

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.06

Llaneros

0.75

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.84

Llaneros

1.55

+0.72scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.72scores more

Llaneros-0.05on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Llaneros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

77%

Deportivo Pasto or Llaneros

71%

Draw or Llaneros

51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

23%

Llaneros wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

14%

Llaneros 1+ goals

55%

Llaneros 2+ goals

19%

Llaneros 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

68%

Llaneros (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 9 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.55 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.06 + Llaneros defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Llaneros attack 0.75 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

49%

level

29%

Llaneros scores more

23%

Deportivo Pasto at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Andrés Alarcón

20'

Brayan CarabalíPenalty confirmed

22'

F. BonePenalty

64'

K. Valencia← C. Sierra

64'

J. Bernal← F. Espinal

65'

G. Charrupi← D. Quinones

75'

A. Mojica← J. E. Mina Chara

76'

G. Ritacco← F. Bone

77'

G. Torres← D. Castillo

81'

M. Sierra← E. Restrepo

81'

R. Hinojosa← J. Lasso

90'

Juan Castilla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoLlaneros

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots9

7Corners8

11Fouls4

Shots

9Total Shots9

2On Target0

2Off Target7

5Blocked2

5Inside Box3

4Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

316Total Passes432

260Accurate Passes369

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls4

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0