Llaneros 1–3 Deportes Tolima: Result & Stats

Llaneros

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Deportes Tolima

H. Reina 88'

G. Lencina 34', 9'

J. Gonzalez 29'

5/19/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 19Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Llaneros36%

×Draw30%

Deportes Tolima34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlanerosExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.04

Llaneros

1.07

Deportes Tolima

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

1.15

creates per match

1.20

0.89

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Llaneros

1.15

Deportes Tolima

1.20

allows per match

Llaneros

0.89

Deportes Tolima

1.00

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Llaneros-0.24scores less

Deportes Tolima-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw

66%

Llaneros or Deportes Tolima

70%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

64%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+

14%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals

66%

Llaneros 2+ goals

29%

Llaneros 3+ goals

9%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

65%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

28%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)

51%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.89 · 11 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.15 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Deportes Tolima attack 1.20 + Llaneros defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Llaneros scores more

36%

level

30%

Deportes Tolima scores more

34%

Llaneros at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

G. Lencina

Deportes Tolima · F

7.9

Match Events

3'

Eyder Restrepo

9'

G. Lencina↳ C. Arrieta

13'

Cristian Guzman

29'

J. Gonzalez↳ J. Quinones

32'

Óscar Vega

32'

Anderson Angulo

34'

G. Lencina

46'

J. Mayorga← F. Espinal

46'

D. Mosquera← E. Restrepo

46'

59'

65'

65'

65'

E. Valencia← L. Miranda

65'

M. Diaz← J. Gonzalez

73'

C. Reyes← J. Quinones

77'

Victor Reyes

78'

M. Sierra← A. Lopez

88'

H. Reina↳ B. Uruena

90'

Harold ReinaGoal confirmed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LlanerosDeportes

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots7

6Corners1

12Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots7

4On Target5

7Off Target2

2Blocked0

10Inside Box6

3Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

423Total Passes393

366Accurate Passes330

87%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls7

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Primera A: Llaneros 1–3 Deportes Tolima

Deportes Tolima beat Llaneros 3-1 in Primera A on May 19, 2025.

Goals: G. Lencina (9', 34'), J. Gonzalez (29'), H. Reina (88').

Llaneros controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Bello Horizonte in Villavicencio.

Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Llaneros 1–3 Deportes Tolima